Error term — where it appears
Named by 16 essays across 5 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.
The endgame, accounted for
Add up what each region is worth, then add the biggest thing at stake, subtract the next, and so on down. On a board of simple fights the result is exact — and the moment one region has a fight inside it, the account is out by a point.
The same fight, eight times over
The mean is not roughly what a position is worth. It is the number that eight copies of the position stay close to — and the theorem is that the closeness does not decay as the copies pile up. The gap stops at the temperature, and stays there for ever.
Counting at the end changes everything
Go is scored. So are Dots and Boxes, chess and almost everything anybody plays for money — and none of them is the kind of game this site's whole apparatus is built for. The simplest scoring game there is shows what that costs — the normal-play theory gives every position of it the same answer, and the answer is useless.
An environment made of coupons
Beside the game sits a stack of coupons worth 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, and a player may always take the top one instead of moving. Play the whole thing out and two quantities the theory computes are measured instead: {4 | 0} comes out worth exactly 2, its mean value, and the coupons stop at 2, its temperature. For {10 | {9 | 1}}, whose temperature is 1, they stop at 7/2 — because what the stopping coupon measures is the hottest temperature anywhere in the tree.
The switch a player is imagining
Every account of a hot position ends up as "worth about m, and worth t to move in", which is the switch {m+t | m−t}. For a plain fight that summary is the position exactly. For a fight with anything behind it the leftover is not a rounding error — on one position here it is a whole second fight of temperature two.
Two games in one environment
A coupon stack measures a position: play the whole board out and the coupon the players stop at is the temperature, the score is the mean. Put a second position beside the first and one of the two measurements stops working. Over 36 ordered pairs the contributions still add to the means every time, and the coupon a fight is entered at moves on 13 of them — without either position changing.
A rule with a guarantee
Evaluating a sum of a dozen fights is impossible; following a rule is not. Move where the stake is largest, and over 220 sums of three hot components the rule scores exactly what perfect play scores in 196 of them, is never more than one point behind, and never ends more than the largest single stake below the mean. The rule that is supposed to be different — answer the threat — chose differently in none of the 220.
Cooling adds and heating does not
The two operators are presented as a pair, and they are not one. Cooling a sum is the same as cooling the parts and adding, on every one of the 1,768 pairs tried, at two taxes and on two pools. Heating fails on 263 — and not for the obvious reason: in every failure neither part and not the sum is a number, so the clause exempting numbers never fires at the top. It fires two levels down, where an option of a sum is one part's option plus the whole of the other.
A rule with no promise at all
Playing in a hottest component comes with a bound: never more than the largest single temperature below the mean of the board. Over 220 sums the bound holds 220 times — and so does the bound for a rule with nothing behind it, which scores exactly what perfect play scores on 205 sums against the hottest rule's 196. The control that shows the bound is doing work is the rule that plays the coldest component, which breaks it 74 times and loses up to eleven points.
How wrong a nearly-independent split is
Treating a connected board as a sum of two halves is a claim, and the rung below counted how often it fails. This one prices it: over every vertical cut of every small Domineering rectangle the error is a game rather than a number, it is never in Right's favour, and it is bounded below by twice the height of the cut — a bound the height alone does not supply.
The bend is in the stops
The rung below reduced the whole stop reading to one question — does this wall bend? — and asked whether that could be answered from the options' stops instead of from a diagram. It can, in four lines, and it gives more than the bend: on all 1,459 non-number values born by day three the options' stops determine the entire thermograph. One day deeper it breaks, and every failure is a value with a bent-walled option.
The worst value in its own interval
The rung below scored a component by its temperature less its hottest answer's and asked what rate the answer should really be charged at. Every weight strictly between nought and one scores the same and beats the rung below's choice of one at every board size — because a ranking rule's score is a step function of its own coefficient, and one is exactly where two components tie.
The same number in two currencies
The rung below found bent-walled values falling strictly inside the translation bound and asked how far. The shortfall is the value's own hottest follow-up's temperature — exactly, on 400 of 408 pairs, and twice it on the other eight — which makes the whole error one expression. And it is the switches ladder's constant: a half there and a whole here, because a temperature is half a stop gap.
What a pass is worth to a theory
The rung below finds fifteen of twenty-seven coin rows where having the move is a disadvantage, and those are exactly the rows Milnor's mean-value theory has to assume away. Allow a pass and the hypothesis stops being a hypothesis — nought violations, on every row in range. What it costs is the convention the rest of this site is built on.
A hypothesis has to hold all the way down
Milnor's bound is proved by induction over the play, so the condition it needs has to hold at every position the play can reach. Checked on the row instead, ninety-two pairs pass the test and twenty-four of them break the bound. Checked at every subposition, twenty-eight pairs pass and none breaks it.
A difference the rows cannot predict
The diagrams that are not the sum of their rows have been counted and never priced. Priced over 50 diagrams and 63,408,981 positions, the difference takes three values and is a function of nothing a reader can see: seven diagrams whose rows are worth ∗ and ∗ split five to two on it, the third value arrives only at the ninth file, and the one rule that survives is a parity — all twenty-one diagrams of three, five and seven rows add, and every failure carries an even number of rows.
Named alongside it
The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.
TemperatureMean valueDisjunctive sumExhaustive searchHot gameThermographAdditivityFollow-upSenteStopsSwitchApproximation