Strategy — the series · Combinatorial Game Theory

What the rule costs. Every sum of three components from a fixed pool, played out twice: once with one side following the rule "move where the stake is largest" and once with both sides evaluating exactly. The rule is not optimal, the gap is bounded, and the bound is the largest temperature on the board.

A rule with a guarantee

Evaluating a sum of a dozen fights is impossible; following a rule is not. Move where the stake is largest, and over 220 sums of three hot components the rule scores exactly what perfect play scores in 196 of them, is never more than one point behind, and never ends more than the largest single stake below the mean. The rule that is supposed to be different — answer the threat — chose differently in none of the 220.

part 1 · temperature

Four rules over 220 sums. Each rule plays every sum against an opponent evaluating exactly. Two of the rules come with a bound and two do not; the coldest rule is the control, and it violates the bound often enough to show that being inside it is a real constraint rather than a description of the pool.

A rule with no promise at all

Playing in a hottest component comes with a bound: never more than the largest single temperature below the mean of the board. Over 220 sums the bound holds 220 times — and so does the bound for a rule with nothing behind it, which scores exactly what perfect play scores on 205 sums against the hottest rule's 196. The control that shows the bound is doing work is the rule that plays the coldest component, which breaks it 74 times and loses up to eleven points.

part 2 · temperature

Five rules over 120 sums built to punish greed. Each rule plays every sum against an opponent evaluating exactly, on a pool whose components are traps: a large immediate gain that hands the opponent a larger follow-up. The pool was built to punish the greedy rule and does not — that rule scores a move by the stop it leaves, and a stop already contains the follow-up. What the traps catch is the rule below it, which scores a move by the territory it takes and loses up to 16.

A pool built to punish greed

The rung below found a rule with no theorem behind it beating the rule with one, and predicted that a pool of deliberate traps would reverse the result. It does not. The traps miss, because the rule called greedy scores a move by the stop it leaves and a stop already contains the follow-up — and the rule the traps do catch, losing sixteen points where the guaranteed rule loses five, had to be written to make the point.

part 3 · temperature

How far down the stack the guarantee reaches. The temperatures of a sum's components, sorted largest first, with each position asked whether playing in the hottest component can lose more than the temperature sitting there. The first two never fail; the third fails on 681 sums.

A schedule instead of a number

Playing in the hottest component loses at most the largest temperature on the board — the classical guarantee, stated against one number. Sorting the temperatures and reading the guarantee one step further down gives a promise 47 per cent smaller that is never breached over 1,734 sums. Two steps down it fails 120 times, so the schedule has exactly one step of slack in it.

part 4 · temperature

An environment instead of a stack

The guarantee behind playing the hottest component survives one step down a board's sorted temperatures and fails at two. Against a coupon environment as hot as the board it survives all of them — because the rule stops being approximate and starts being optimal, on every sum in the pool built to punish it.

part 5 · temperature