Every essay — page 30
Values
What a position is worth — numbers, and the things that are not numbers, and how to find the simplest one.
Fifty-two errors and seven sizes
Day two is a lattice and a group and not a lattice-ordered group, and the fifty-two incomparable pairs it fails on leave fifty-two different error terms. Measured rather than listed, the fifty-two collapse: seven pairs of stops, three means, three temperatures, and a rule that predicts the temperature from the pair on forty-four of them.
The cheapest way to show a value
Eleven thousand positions from fifteen rulesets reach 1,193 values, and for each of them there is a smallest board that shows it. Set against the birthday the two measures agree hardly at all — until the numbers are taken out, at which point they agree rather well, and the whole apparent independence turns out to be a fact about integers.
Which option the reduction keeps
Domination deletes an option when another is at least as good, so what survives is the top of an order. On a board that order is made of moves, and two descriptions of the surviving move suggest themselves. Over 1,586 Domineering option lists one of them is right 47% of the time and the other 90%, and the one that wins is not the one a player would guess.
The birthday is a floor
The rung below measured a correlation of 0.73 between a value's birthday and the size of its cheapest exhibit, and asked which values are dearer than the birthday suggests. The relation is not a trend. Over all 728 non-number values the exhibit is never smaller than the birthday and is exactly the birthday on 476 of them, and the excess on the other 252 belongs to the game rather than to the value — the ruleset accounts for 40 per cent of its variance.
The bend is the condition
The rung below offered a description of the class its stop reading is exact on — neither wall bends below the meeting point — and a route to proving it: that a bend happens precisely when some option is neither a number nor an infinitesimal. The first is exact on all 138 values, both directions, no exception. The second is half right: every bent value has such an option and 49 unbent ones do too. And the eight apparent exceptions to the first turn out to be a bookkeeping convention.
How many moves are worth making
A value answers who wins and by how much, and the anchor below names the quantities it discards. This is the first of them counted. Over 1,034 Domineering regions and 125 values, 63 values have two regions disagreeing about how many placements are worth making and 52 disagree over whether there is any choice at all — and the count of good moves stays near one and a half however large the region gets.
The margin a count needs
Leaving the opponent fewest replies names only surviving options nine times in ten, which leaves the question of what a bound stated in that count would have to be weakened to. It is a margin. Over 57,879 pairs of Domineering options, the one leaving the opponent fewer replies is the worse of the two 1,052 times at a margin of one and 72 times at a margin of two — and at a margin of three, never.
The weight that blunts the count
The rung below found that counting the opponent's replies gets the direction of a comparison right once the gap reaches three, and proposed a repair: weigh each reply by whether it leaves the opponent anything. Weighing it makes the count worse. The threshold goes from three to four, the failures from 1,124 to 1,320, and all seventy-two of the pairs the repair was written for come through it unchanged.
Half a follow-up out
The rung below settled which values the stop reading is wrong about — the ones whose walls bend — and left the size of the error unmeasured. It is not bounded by anything readable off the diagram; it equals something readable off the diagram. On all thirty-two, the mean and the temperature are each out by exactly half the follow-up's temperature, and the temperature is always read too low.
Wider costs less
The rung below found the cheapest exhibit of a value never smaller than its birthday, exactly equal on two thirds, and the ruleset explaining 40 per cent of the rest. The variable it proposed for the remainder was the width of the form. Width and excess correlate at −0.39: the wider the value, the closer to its birthday it is exhibited, and inside a ruleset the relation cannot even agree on a sign.
What a strategy has to remember
A value answers who wins and by how much, and it settles neither how many moves achieve it nor whether the best one is unique. Counted over every position reachable inside the catalogue of regions, the gap has a size: 4,269 positions carry 128 values between them, and a player who wants to win rather than to predict has to store 3,308 choices — twenty-six entries for every number the theory supplies.
The threshold was a fact about the census
Two rungs failed to account for the seventy-two pairs where a mobility count gets the direction of a comparison wrong, and the third looks at them one at a time. They are not a class of shapes. All seventy-two are on the largest board in the census, at two depths, and sixteen positions up to symmetry — and one board larger the count fails at a margin of three, which the ladder has been quoting as the point at which it never does.
A second level of stops
The rung below found the stop reading's error to be exactly half the follow-up's temperature and asked whether the correction survives a wider pool, survives two bends, and can be stated without a thermograph. It survives eleven times the pool, missing two values in 1,459. It needs no thermograph — the follow-up's temperature is half its own stop gap. And it does not survive two bends, because day three contains no value with two of them.
The entry fee was the cap
Two rungs measured how much bigger a position has to be than the value it exhibits, and attributed what was left to the ruleset — Toads and Frogs paying 2.25 squares on everything, green Hackenbush paying nothing. Neither number is a property of the rules. Inside every ruleset the excess falls as the birthday rises, because the sweep's size cap censors exactly the values that would pay most — and three squares past the cap, Toads and Frogs exhibits values born later than the strip is long.
Three rules and a tie-break
An exhaustive table of what a Domineering strategy has to remember is 3,308 lines. Three rules applied in order answer 94.5 per cent of it — leave the opponent fewest replies, then keep the region whole, then take whichever placement comes first — and the fourth and fifth rules answer not one more. The residue is 181 decisions in which every rule scores the candidates the same and one of them is worse.
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